True or false? First, one country holding elections this year has 350 registered political parties, 52 of which will appear on its national ballot. Second, one of the 350 is named ‘Basic Income Grant’ and promises to give every adult citizen free cash transfers every month. Or third, this country’s former president is now the leader of a new party contesting against the ruling party – of which he is still a member. All are true – this is South Africa.
The ‘big three’
On 29 May South Africans will vote on whether to give the African National Congress (ANC) another five years in power, or to give the other 51 parties a chance. The likeliest outcome is a coalition government, because most opinion polls concur that the ANC vote will drop below 50 percent for the first time. The ANC’s electoral popularity peaked at 70 percent in 2004 but has fallen in every election since, to 66 percent in 2009, 62 percent in 2014, and 57 percent in 2019, and is projected to plummet to around 40 percent this year.
Read South Africa decides 2024 part 1: the state of the nation
Even given its declining trend, dropping 17 percentage points in five years is dramatic. The spoiler is uMkhonto weSizwe (MK Party), founded in December 2023 and led by former president Jacob Zuma, who remains an ANC member. Zuma’s grassroots popularity means the MK Party could capture 8 percent or more of ANC supporters.
Of the other ‘big three’ parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) secured 21 percent of the national vote in 2019, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 11 percent. The DA’s performance in 2019 reflected steady progress from its base of just two percent in 1994 and ten percent in 1999, but a slight decline from 22 percent in 2014. The DA’s vote is projected to plateau around 20 percent. It has consistently failed to attract large numbers of black voters, in a country whose population is 81 percent black, eight percent ‘coloured’ and only seven percent white.
The EFF’s vote share is expected to increase from 11 to 15 percent, from its base of six percent in 2014. Its growth is due to its populist policies, its charismatic but controversial leader Julius Malema, and the ANC’s increasing unpopularity.
South Africa could follow one of three paths after the upcoming elections – ‘business as usual’ (ANC-led); the ‘liberal alternative’ (DA-influenced); or ‘radical economic transformation’ (RET) (EFF-influenced).
Pathway #1: Business as usual
In 2017, Cyril Ramaphosa won a knife-edge ANC leadership election against Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Jacob Zuma’s ex-wife and his preferred successor. This was a pivotal moment. Dlamini-Zuma is aligned with Jacob Zuma’s faction of the ANC, responsible for economic mismanagement, rampant corruption, and state capture.
Conversely, Ramaphosa was seen by many as a safe pair of hands, wealthy enough as a successful businessman to be above corruption, pro-poor and pro-worker from his time as an anti-apartheid activist and former trade union leader. Unfortunately, he has failed to deliver. The ANC has had a majority in Parliament for 30 years, long enough to turn South Africa around from its racist past, towards a brighter future for the historically disadvantaged. Instead, “support for the ANC has been dwindling amid economic stagnation, high unemployment, corruption scandals, severe power outages, and rampant crime.”
Even the ANC’s traditional vote-winning policies, like the Child Support Grant, have lost their lustre. Fear of having their “Mandela money” taken away was a significant deterrent to voting for other parties in past elections, but a new survey finds that this predictor of voter behaviour is fading. One reason is that opposition parties strongly support social protection. For example, the EFF includes “doubling of social grants” in its 2024 manifesto commitments.
Many citizens are “gatvol” (sick and tired) of the ANC and its somnolent President, who is leading a government that seems to have no solutions or political will to address South Africa’s polycrisis.
Pathway #2: The liberal alternative
The official opposition since 1999 is the Democratic Alliance (DA), a liberal party with origins as the National Party’s parliamentary opposition during the apartheid era. The “non-racial” DA remains white-dominated, but is also supported by other ethnic groups, especially so-called ‘coloureds’.
The DA runs two metropolitan municipalities – the capital city Pretoria (Tshwane), and Cape Town – as well as several district and local municipalities. DA municipalities are generally well run. Cape Town ranks first in the country for good governance, economic development, financial sustainability, unemployment, and service delivery. The DA also has several young leaders, the mayors of Tshwane, Cape Town and uMngeni are all in their 30s. Unfortunately, all are white men, as are the Premier of the Western Cape and the DA Party leader.
The DA rejects Black Economic Empowerment as discriminatory against whites and facilitating ANC cadre deployment, which it sees as responsible for incompetent and corrupt governance. The DA argues that it prioritises competence over identity politics. This is disingenuous. Prominent black DA members, including the party leader from 2014–2019, have come and gone, reinforcing perceptions that it is a “white elitist party”. Race remains a dominant driver of social and political discourse in South Africa, 30 years after apartheid ended.
Recognising that its scope for growth is limited, the DA launched the ‘Multi-Party Charter’ in 2023, a pre-election agreement between 10 political parties which collectively hold 28 percent of seats in Parliament. One Charter party is Action SA, formed in 2020 and led by Herman Mashaba, a millionaire businessman and respected former DA mayor of Johannesburg. This bloc could be joined by other like-minded new parties with charismatic black leaders, like Build One South Africa and Rise Mzansi.
Pathway #3: Radical economic transformation
The EFF is a Marxist-Leninist party dedicated to overturning domination of the South African economy by “white monopoly capital”. The EFF was founded by Julius Malema in 2013, following his expulsion from the ANC for “fomenting divisions”. The EFF champions radical economic transformation policies, which include land expropriation without compensation, and nationalisation of banks and mines.
EFF leaders have faced numerous accusations of corruption, intimidation of journalists, hate speech and anti-white racism. In 2016 Julius Malema said at a political rally, “We are not calling for the slaughter of white people, at least for now.” The EFF has orchestrated attacks on the media, the judiciary, the rule of law and even the Constitution, which is recognised as “one of the most progressive in the world”. Populists and RET politicians argue that the Constitution reflects imported, not African, values. The MK Party’s manifesto argues for scrapping the “colonial” and “liberal” Constitution and expanding the powers of traditional leaders.
Another populist party is the Patriotic Alliance, which is expected to take ‘coloured’ votes from the DA because of its perceived support for Israel in its war on Gaza. The Patriotic Alliance favours reintroducing religious education in schools, military conscription, and the death penalty, as well as mass deportations of undocumented immigrants.
Conclusion
Some form of coalition government looks inevitable, but coalitions have produced chaotic administrations as parties fight for power and neglect service delivery. In the 2016 local elections the ANC lost its majority in several municipalities, and Johannesburg has had a multi-party government ever since, with 7 mayors in 3 years since 2021. Residents of Johannesburg, once the city of gold but now the “city of potholes”, often endure weeks without water or rubbish collection.
So which pathway will South Africans choose? If the ANC secures less than 50 percent of the vote, it could form a coalition with either the DA and DA-aligned parties to its right, or the EFF and other populists to its left. The EFF seems likely to join forces with Zuma’s MK Party. The DA calls this “the ANC/EFF/MK Doomsday grouping”.
One final unpredictable factor is voter apathy or dissatisfaction. Only 22 percent of eligible youth voted in 2019, possibly reflecting a pervasive feeling that none of the options on the list represent their aspirations and values. I will vote on 29 May, but for whom? With 52 parties to choose from, it’s going to be interesting.
